Rising rupee and the fall of almighty dollar

I was whining about the same thing to my GF when i went to India a few months ago ....its almost funny given that i gave the same cost of jeans example ....read on :) !!!
(The Times of India Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) Traveling in the west is an expensive proposition for most Indians. At least it used to be. Up until a few years back, it was customary for Indians visiting the United States, especially middle class first time travelers, to constantly convert dollar costs into rupees and mutter how costly things are. ''Six dollars for a sandwich? Baap re, that's almost Rs 300. Too much!'' you could hear them think.

Conversely, well-settled NRIs visiting home would convert rupee costs into dollars and marvel at how inexpensive things are. Some years back, two desi classmates who had done well in US returned home for a vacation and met at a popular eatery they had patronised when they were in college. After eating to their hearts content, they chuckled at the tab of Rs 80 less than two dollars. Ah, good old India!

Over the past decade, both scenarios and both sentiments - have begun to change. More recently, expats convert rupee expenses to dollars and goggle at how expensive India has become. Our metropolises, despite being urban ghettos, rank among the most expensive real estate in the world. Top-end hotel tariffs are insane. Increasingly, quality goods and services are becoming costlier, rapidly undermining India's cachet as an attractive low-cost market.

Sure, the dollar and pound still go some way. You can get a modest meal at a modest eatery for a couple of bucks - ten rupees to a hundred.

But dinner for two at an upscale restaurant can also set you back by a couple of thousand rupees - and more if you add a drink or two. You can still buy a shirt or a pair of trousers for a few hundred rupees; you can also splurge thousands on a designer brands.

What is starting to astonish visitors is how many Indians are able to afford the high-end. There are still 400 million people who live on a dollar a day, but it seems many people have a lifestyle that's more in tune with dollar-a-minute earnings.

Of course, if you count even 1% of high-wage earners among a billion people that still adds up to a sizable 10 million (population of Belgium).

But it is the change in mental attitude about spending that is striking. It's a good bet that Nokia has sold more high-end phones in India than in Belgium. For instance, young folks in India seem to think nothing of picking up a pair or jeans in one of those sleek new malls paying Rs 1600, almost $40 at today's exchange rate.

In contrast, you can buy the same in US for less than $20. Dollar earning expats who would pick up the dinner tab in India now hang back quietly while eager Indian hosts whip out their credit cards. Indians are learning the American way if you have a good thing going, overdo it.

Part of the reason for all this, aside from the rising salaries in India, is the fall of the ''Almighty Dollar.'' A near 20% rise in rupee strength vis-a-vis the US dollar from a couple of years ago means your Disneyland dreams are 20% cheaper.

A battered dollar means Americans find their vacations more expensive. The world isn't worshipping at the altar of the almighty dollar anymore

Waiting On The World To Change

Waiting On The World To Change - John Mayer

me and all my friends
we're all misunderstood
they say we stand for nothing and
there's no way we ever could
now we see everything that's going wrong
with the world and those who lead it
we just feel like we don't have the means
to rise above and beat it

so we keep waiting
waiting on the world to change
we keep on waiting
waiting on the world to change

it's hard to beat the system
when we're standing at a distance
so we keep waiting
waiting on the world to change
now if we had the power
to bring our neighbors home from war
they would have never missed a Christmas
no more ribbons on their door
and when you trust your television
what you get is what you got
cause when they own the information, oh
they can bend it all they want

that's why we're waiting
waiting on the world to change
we keep on waiting
waiting on the world to change

it's not that we don't care,
we just know that the fight ain't fair
so we keep on waiting
waiting on the world to change

and we're still waiting
waiting on the world to change
we keep on waiting waiting on the world to change
one day our generation
is gonna rule the population
so we keep on waiting
waiting on the world to change

we keep on waiting
waiting on the world to change

India Vs Sri Lanka

Damn....the score is still at India 90/3 chasing 254 or something.....sometimes you just wish you could fast forward a live match.

While having taken the oath to NEVER EVER watch a India match again after the bangladesh debacle and previously the disastrous tour to SA and previously something else.....i have always found myself getting back to that eternal optimistic Indian fan who knows in his head that we will not or rather are not capable of winning...but the heart always tries to think otherwise.....

While i write this....sehwag has fallen(105/4) and chances of winning seem bleak......Why does the Indian team always have to make it so hard for the Indian fans?

Couch Potato

Am not doing much this weekend except for sleeping and just lazing around.I guess i am compensating for the hectic trip last weekeend to NJ and Washington D.C.Also returning just a couple of weeks back from my India trip had added to the weariness and stress.

So here i am ...just sitting around...watching SNL(Saturday Night Live for the uninitiated)...when am hit by a sudden thought.Am i transforming into a couch potato like a million other Americans ? Having developed a protuding belly over the last year points toward that :).No seriously, i mean there are atleast a dozen shows that i like watching and do watch almost regularly when i am back from work.Among them are The Office(my favorite),My Name is Earl,Scrubs,Raymond,Seinfeld,King Of Queens,Deal or No Deal,How I met your Mother,Two and a half men...and the list goes on....

Also the cold weather outside doesnt allow for much of outing during normal weekdays and one is normally holed up at their apartments and hence the TV :).But then there are always a million reasons for not doing anything...in this case reducing the amount of time i sit in front of TV and utilising it for exercising and stuff.

Will have to start thinking about cutting out on Idiot Box.....once i am done watching SNL :) !!!

Value Investing

I am pretty sure that i am not the first person to dwell on the current valuations of Indian stock market.It was about 9000 a year ago and then people were talking about it reaching just maybe 10000-11000 in a year.The optimists were predicting it to breach the 12000 mark.But now that we have seen it has reached plethoric heights of 14000...makes me wonder how much far can it go? Also makes you think...is there any method to this madness or we should be as optimistic as the people reincarnating the "India Shining" story....??

Anyhow, the market is currently in a very volatile phase as most of the people are divided whether the market should go further north or settle somehwere down south.I think it is this kind of situations which makes even people with normal intellect and sense lose their sanity ,act crazily even with a slightest provocation in the market and dont follow the most mundane concepts of disciplined investing.Hence anyone thinking about entering the market in this phase has to be more protective and defensive about his money(after all it is your hard earned money) and should think long and hard about making any investing decisions.

While in the dilemma as to "To Be or Not To Be" in the market...i started reading a lot of material on investing .I came across a book known as "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham.Popularly known as Ben, Benjamin Graham is supposed to be the greatest value investor and was(and posthumously still is) the "GURU" of Warren Buffett.His concept of value investing is very simple to understand and implement , if u keep a calm head and have patience amidst all kind of noises of "tips" , sure shot winners,et al arnd you.

Unlike brokers,writers,tippers or friends or uncles who guarantee ke ek saal mein double ho jaayega, he makes you develop a methodology which you must follow while choosing any stock.It tries to ingrain in you a discipline of slecting a stock only upon the confluence of all the conditions.It may take days,months or sometimes years when you will have to be plain inactive or wait for the right opportunity.But if that discipline is instilled, you will gain over long term.

In brief, there are certain rules you should run before buying(or selling) any security.They are

1.Invest in business not in company: Invest if you think the business has a good growth potential and company has a monopoly in that business.
2.Financial Condition: Current assets should be at least 1 1/2 times current
liabilities
3.Earnings Stability: There should be no deficit in the last five years
4.Dividend Record: The company should have a dividend record of atleast 10 years
5.Earnings growth: The EPS should have a growth path of 20% year on year.
6.Good Management: Go for companies with a proven track record
7.Price: The price should be less than 120% of is net tangible assets.

The concept becomes more clearer when you read the book.Being a non-finance guy.....it is taking me time to understand the financial stuff in it.The primary thing which the book is aiming at making you understand is that "The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsustainable optimism(which makes stocks too expensive)and unjustified pessimism(which makes stocks too cheap).The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists"

So if you are really interested in getting into stock market or knowing more about value investing, i would suggest you read this book first.

Happy Investing !!!!

GURU and TRAFFIC SIGNAL

Caught up with these two movies while i was in Bombay.

I think people had very high expectations of GURU.For me the movie went from OK to Good but never at a great or excellent level.There were many loose threads and unnecessary subplots.For example, i still dont understand the need to put in Vidya Balan's story .Also a couple of songs,specially the song when the twins are born to ABHI-ASH was totally unnecessary.The movie should have been more intense like the way SARKAR was made.Acting was overall good with clearly Abhishek being the mainsay.

Madhur Bhandarkar's movies always have a realistic edge to them and hence they appeal to me.Traffic signal as a movie was good.It revolved around a a very hatke concept and the content was very well researched.The movie did get a bit repetitive at some point and from then on , one always knew the direction it was taking.But nevertheless it is a good attempt to show the working behind the 180 crore beggar industry of Bombay.I Liked the acting of Kunal Khemu and all the other characters played their part well too.

For Guru , i went to a normal ADLABS multiplex for which the tickets cost me about 200 bucks each.Even the popcorn was 50 bucks.Theatre going has become a expensive affair and I was shocked to see that people are spending that kind of money too.FOr traffic signal , we went to Cinemax Gold screens where they have recliner chairs and u can watch the movie in an almost sleeping position(they also provide blankets).I must admit it was quite comfy.The price of the ticket was 250 bucks each.A bit expensive again but a different kind of experience.

GIVE ME RED

Its been a long time since i have posted something.The inactivity has been due to my india trip during which i was mostly an inactive netizen.

During my vacation , i was only in my home city ,Bombay(Mumbai - i hate this political name).Since this was my first trip back home after a year,in the initial days i kept on bickering(in a funny way) about the traffic,pollution,no civic sense,population etc with my family members and friends , while they kept on reminding me "yahin par tu 25 saal ka hua hain...1 saal bahar kya gaya attitude dikhane laga hain " :).We usually try to defend ourselves by starting a lecture on parampara and sanskriti and stuff while refusing to call spade a spade.If the civic amneties are not good they are not good...why not to accept that.Anyways, i think i would have probably reacted in the same manner had i been at the recieving end of amerika returned indian.

People are now in a position to get a greater luxury in life thanks to the rising income ,easy availabilty of loans and other associated factors.While the civic development(roads,flyovers,etc) has been going on at a relatively faster pace, the number of vehicles too have increased manifold.As a result ,i think out of 24 hours we now have a situation where 18 hours can be considered to be peak hours across Bombay.Also trains remain full almost all the time.Roads are pretty much jammed at most hours and driving is now a pain (as opposed to pleasure which it should be).However i think Bombay has much better public transport system than most cities in the world.

Even though i travelled by all modes,personally this time round i thought the best mode of transport were our BEST buses.I was meeting my girlfriend(now fiancee) after a long period of 1 year and wanted to make up for most of the lost time.BEST buses are generally well maintained,one usually gets a place to seat(choose the correct route), people are generally well behaved and there is generally no disturbance except for the ticket tick tick :) .Also since we stay at Ghatkopar and were travelling mostly to south mumbai regularly(often during peak hours), it turned out to be the best mode of transport as compared to the other utilities

1.Trains,almost always full and we would have had to travel in different compartments.
2.Rickshaws, they dont go beyond sion.
3.Taxis, i think they are a shady mode of transport and also it would have cost me a fortune going to south mumbai regularly
4.Personal Vehicle, i wouldnt have had the courage to drive it.

The traffic too was generally not very bad on the route we traversed.I dont know why but i enjoyed the bus rides almost everytime i took it and think that if one wants to see(and feel) Bombay in real sense, one must travel by these red engines at least once.However i was disappointed to learn that the double decker buses on many routes were stopped.Sitting on the first seat on the upper floor of a double decker used to be fun.

By the end of the trip the bickering was gone and i was hoping that i getta chance to stay for some more time.There might be thousands of problems in Bombay , but still in heart everyone knows the life u live there is incomparable with any other experience one has.